With Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President, concerns have surged among the transgender community, sparking widespread panic and deep uncertainty. Cathy Renna, a veteran LGBTQ advocate, has been inundated with messages from transgender individuals fearful about their future, ranging from worries about job security to considering erasing their digital footprints to avoid becoming targets of hate and discrimination.

Trump’s campaign placed significant emphasis on gender identity issues, positioning them as a focal point of his political strategy. Through a series of targeted TV advertisements, fiery speeches, and campaign rallies, Trump communicated his intention to challenge transgender rights, framing the rollback of these protections as a priority for his administration. The result has been a community now caught between apprehension and a struggle to prepare for what lies ahead. “There’s a tremendous amount of apprehension and fear,” noted Renna, who serves as the communications director for the National LGBTQ Task Force. She underscored that the stakes this time are even higher, stating, “It’s not going to be like his first administration. He has a different group of people around him and he’s prepared to do significant damage to our democracy – and to the LGBTQ community.”

For the transgender community, these fears are not unfounded. During Trump’s previous administration, pivotal LGBTQ+ rights were undermined, including the rollback of healthcare protections and the controversial ban on transgender individuals serving in the military, which was later reversed by the Biden administration. This historical context only heightens the current anxiety as many brace for renewed challenges.

Renna highlighted that targeting the transgender community was a strategic move in Trump’s campaign playbook, one that resonated with segments of Christian conservative voters while perpetuating harmful and misleading narratives. His rhetoric frequently involved inflammatory statements that skewed public perception and exacerbated stigmas. In one particularly striking example, Trump claimed in an interview with Moms 4 Liberty that schools were independently deciding on significant operations for children without parental input—a statement that was promptly debunked. Earlier in his campaign, he misrepresented two female Olympic boxing champions as male athletes, despite both being women by birth and upbringing.

“It’s not surprising that he found the community a convenient target,” Renna remarked. “The community is very vulnerable, and the public still needs to be educated as to who our trans and nonbinary siblings are. But the rhetoric he puts out there creates a permissible climate of hate.” This type of public discourse fuels discrimination and fear, making the situation dire for many in the transgender community.

The impact of such rhetoric is palpable. According to a survey conducted by the Trevor Project, a national organization focused on supporting LGBTQ+ youth, 90% of LGBTQ+ youth reported that the current political climate negatively affected their mental health and overall well-being. The day following the election, the organization reported an astonishing 700% spike in demand for its crisis support services compared to prior weeks. This surge underscored the real and immediate mental health toll the political climate has on vulnerable communities. To respond to these growing concerns, regional centers like Missouri’s GLO Center extended their hours, offering “post-election decompression” to help people process their emotions and fears.

Jami Taylor, a professor of political science and public administration at the University of Toledo and a trans woman, described the current situation as an “existential crisis for the trans community.” Taylor emphasized that the pervasive fear is justified. “There’s a lot of fear, and it is warranted,” she said. “It’s bad, and there’s no sugarcoating that. You can’t look at people and say it’s going to be okay when you’re not sure it’s going to be okay.”

Renna echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the stakes are high for the entire LGBTQ+ community. She pointed out that Trump’s defamatory and inaccurate statements do more than spread misinformation; they actively contribute to a culture where discrimination and targeted violence become normalized. “When someone says the horrific, defamatory, and inaccurate things he is saying, it has an impact,” Renna said. The remarks embolden prejudice and reinforce a sense of insecurity among people who already face substantial societal challenges.

As Trump prepares for his next term, the transgender community and their advocates remain on edge, determined to push back against potential policy changes that could strip away hard-won rights and protections. Their resolve underscores a broader struggle for equality and safety in an environment charged with political and social tension.

Trump’s Stance on Gender Identity and Transgender Rights

In his Agenda 47 platform, Donald Trump pledges to reverse President Joe Biden’s policies on gender-affirming care “on Day One” if re-elected. Gender-affirming care, supported by prominent medical organizations like the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics, involves hormone treatments and other medical interventions that align a child’s physical development with their gender identity. Despite evidence of its positive impact, Trump’s platform views this care as harmful and aims to eliminate it.

According to a 2022 Pew Research Center poll, about 5% of young adults identify as transgender or nonbinary—three times the rate in the general population. The Williams Institute at UCLA reports around 300,000 youth aged 13 to 17 identify as transgender in the U.S. In response, Trump has proposed banning what he calls “child sexual mutilation,” cutting off Medicaid and Medicare funding for gender-affirming healthcare, and supporting private lawsuits against doctors providing this care.

Additionally, Trump’s agenda includes pushing for federal laws that would define gender strictly as male or female, assigned at birth. He has also advocated for school curricula promoting the traditional nuclear family and has called for defunding schools where staff members discuss gender identity with students. Experts like Jami Taylor, a political science professor at the University of Toledo and a trans woman, expect Trump’s second term to intensify attacks on transgender rights, especially concerning gender-affirming care and sports participation restrictions for transgender individuals.

Taylor noted, “I suspect they’re going to go significantly further based on their rhetoric,” suggesting that the Trump administration could take more aggressive action against the transgender community. While the transgender community has faced targeted attacks during previous election cycles, national advocacy groups like Advocates for Transgender Equality have expressed that this election feels different. They argue that Trump’s focus on gender identity issues in his campaign has made it clear that he intends to continue targeting the rights of transgender people, particularly if re-elected. “He targeted our existence. He targeted our rights. He promised he would continue to target trans people if he won – and we know he will keep his promise,” the group’s fundraising letter reads.

In contrast to public surveys showing widespread disapproval of anti-transgender rhetoric, such as a 74% disapproval rate of political ads targeting transgender people, Taylor points out that many candidates who used this type of messaging still won their races. “Winning is the ultimate metric,” she said. “Correlation isn’t causality, but still, you look at the scoreboard.”

The use of transgender rights as a wedge issue to energize Trump’s base has taken a toll, said Noyola from the Transgender Law Center, who described the community as “exhausted” by relentless messaging that fuels fear and division. “The rhetoric and vitriol have been relentless,” Noyola said, noting the continued use of transgender issues to push a political agenda.

Looking ahead, the transgender community remains worried about the practical effects of Trump’s proposals. Taylor, who has expressed concern about Trump’s plan to limit federal recognition of gender identities, wonders whether such sweeping changes can even be implemented, given the traditional power of states over vital records. “Federalism is going to come into play,” she said, suggesting that while Trump may be able to propose national policies, states still control many aspects of gender recognition. She also pointed out that overly aggressive policy changes could backfire politically, particularly if they infringe on the rights of transgender adults. “If they go after things like identity recognition and health care for trans adults, that’s going to be harder to defend,” Taylor argued.

Jen Grosshandler, the executive director of GenderCool, a group that highlights the positive experiences of transgender youth, believes that while Trump’s election focus may center on social issues, such as restricting transgender rights, voters will eventually demand that their elected officials prioritize the economy and other pressing matters. “Everyday folks do not want their elected officials trying to hold back the rights of folks raising transgender kids,” said Grosshandler, the parent of a transgender daughter. “We know they may try to get some of this done, but there will be an inflection point where you will see everyday people say, stop focusing on this and focus on why we elected you.”

As many families of transgender youth seek refuge in more supportive states like Illinois, Grosshandler is concerned that this trend could continue. “We’re in an extraordinarily supportive state, and we’re probably going to welcome more and more families,” she said, adding that it is unfortunate that families are forced to move in search of safety. Despite the ongoing challenges, Grosshandler remains hopeful, believing that the majority of Americans support transgender rights and do not want to see families like hers persecuted.

The political landscape remains divided on issues surrounding transgender rights. A Pew Research Center survey found Americans closely split on laws restricting discussions of gender identity in elementary schools (41% in favor, 38% opposed) and laws regulating transgender athletes (58% in favor). However, a strong majority, 64%, opposed discriminating against transgender individuals in jobs, housing, and public spaces.

Despite the setbacks, advocates remain resilient. Noyola, who has witnessed the rise of trans leaders during Trump’s first term, emphasized that the transgender community has learned how to organize and mobilize in response to such political attacks. “We will survive this administration like we did last time,” Noyola said, stressing that the community’s ability to organize and endure remains strong.

Renna of the National LGBTQ Task Force echoed this sentiment, acknowledging that while they were shocked by Trump’s victory, they were not unprepared. “How fast these things will happen, we don’t know. But as a community, we owe it to each other to be prepared,” Renna said. She believes that as the consequences of the Trump administration’s policies become clearer, those who voted for him based on economic concerns will begin to regret their choices. “My greatest hope is that no one election can destroy this great democracy,” Renna said. “I think people will fight back.”

Noyola sees the resistance as growing stronger, with the political landscape shifting in favor of greater acceptance of transgender individuals. Recent victories, like Delaware’s Sarah McBride becoming the first openly transgender person elected to Congress, and Iowa’s Aime Wichtendahl becoming the state’s first openly transgender lawmaker, signal that the community is making significant strides despite the challenges they face. “We’re in all aspects of public life,” Noyola said. “Even though this administration will double down in its attacks against us, we remain unwavering. We’re not going away.”