The upcoming bypolls, set to take place on Wednesday, are shaping up to be a significant political showdown between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition coalition known as the INDIA bloc. These elections will not only determine the immediate political landscape in various states but are also being viewed as a litmus test for both major alliances ahead of several key state assembly elections and the 2024 general elections.

Wayanad Lok Sabha Constituency: A High-Profile Contest

The Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency in Kerala is the centerpiece of these bypolls, attracting nationwide attention. This seat, previously held by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, was vacated when he chose to represent Raebareli in the current Lok Sabha session. His sister, Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, is making her electoral debut here, adding further significance to the race. Priyanka will face competition from LDF’s Sathyan Mokeri, NDA’s Navya Haridas, and 13 other candidates. This seat has been a stronghold for the Congress, with Rahul Gandhi winning by a margin of over 3.5 lakh votes in 2024 and by more than 4.3 lakh votes in 2019.

State-by-State Overview of Bypolls

Rajasthan:
Seven assembly seats will see bypolls in Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Deoli-Uniara, Khinvsar, Chaurasi, Salumbar, and Ramgarh. These bypolls are significant as the state has been a key battleground between the ruling Congress and the BJP.

West Bengal:
The state will host bypolls in six constituencies: Taldangra, Sitai-SC, Naihati, Haroa, Medinipur, and Madarihat. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) had won five of these seats in the 2021 assembly elections, while the BJP held the Madarihat seat. The outcome of these bypolls will provide a clear picture of the TMC’s current standing against a reinvigorated opposition.

Assam:
Five seats—Dholai, Behali, Samaguri, Bongaigaon, and Sidli—will be up for election, with a total of 34 candidates in the fray. The INDIA bloc faced challenges in Behali, as internal disagreements led to the Congress fielding its own candidate, countering the alliance’s decision to support the CPI(ML) Liberation.

Bihar:
Bypolls will take place in the constituencies of Ramgarh, Tarari, Imamganj, and Belaganj. These elections are crucial for both the NDA and the INDIA bloc as they will set the tone for upcoming state assembly elections in 2025.

Karnataka:
Three assembly seats—Channapatna, Shiggaon, and Sandur—will see voters head to the polls. In Channapatna, JD(S) leader Nikhil Kumaraswamy, son of former Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy, is contesting after the seat was vacated by his father, who was elected to the Lok Sabha.

Madhya Pradesh:
Bypolls will be held in Budhni and Vijaypur assembly seats. The bypoll in Vijaypur was triggered by the defection of Congress MLA Ramniwas Rawat to the BJP, where he was subsequently appointed as a minister. The Budhni bypoll is taking place following the election of former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan to the Lok Sabha, where he now serves as Union Agriculture Minister.

Other States

Kerala’s Chelakkara, Gujarat’s Vav, Chhattisgarh’s Raipur City South, and Meghalaya’s Gambegre (ST) are also among the constituencies holding bypolls. The diverse political dynamics across these states will offer insights into regional strengths and alliances.

Changes to Voting Schedule

Initially, nine seats in Uttar Pradesh, four in Punjab, and an additional seat in Kerala were scheduled for voting alongside these bypolls. However, the Election Commission has rescheduled polling in these constituencies to November 20 due to logistical considerations.

Uncontested Wins in Sikkim

In Sikkim, the constituencies of Soreng-Chakung and Namchi-Singhithang have already been decided, as candidates from the ruling Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM)—Aditya Golay and Satish Chandra Rai—were declared unopposed after their opponents withdrew from the race. This early result has reinforced SKM’s position in the state.

Key Points to Watch

The bypolls come at a time when both the NDA and INDIA bloc are positioning themselves strategically for the 2024 general elections. For the NDA, securing wins in these bypolls would reaffirm its dominance and indicate continued public support. For the INDIA bloc, a strong performance would underscore its ability to effectively challenge the ruling coalition, showcasing the impact of their new alliances.

The results of these bypolls, set to be counted on November 23, will not only decide the fate of individual constituencies but also act as a bellwether for upcoming state and national elections. With high-profile candidates, strategic alliances, and intense competition, these bypolls are poised to offer a snapshot of the evolving political landscape in India.